title: Tariff Incidence, Supply-Chain Reallocation, and Domestic Propagation
slug: tariff-incidence
summary: Reproducible research on how the 2018–2019 U.S. Section 301 tariffs affected landed costs, customs unit values, import quantities, sourcing, and downstream industry exposure.
research_question: How did U.S. product-level tariffs on imports from China pass through to importers, reshape sourcing, and propagate through domestic input-output linkages?
why_it_matters: Tariffs can raise importer costs, change supplier choices, and affect protected and downstream industries at the same time; credible measurement must keep these channels and their evidential limits separate.
research_fields:
  - International trade
  - Applied econometrics
  - Input-output economics
project_type: empirical-research
status: public-live
authors:
  - Repository owner and maintainer
original_source: Tariff Incidence workspace project
original_sample_period: 2017-01 through 2020-02, covering all four Section 301 actions in the research window.
updated_sample_period: Official U.S. Census HS10 by country by month panel through 2020-02, as documented by the current run stamps.
data_sources:
  - U.S. Census Bureau international trade API
  - U.S. Federal Register and USTR Section 301 notices
  - U.S. International Trade Commission Harmonized Tariff Schedule
  - Bureau of Economic Analysis input-output tables
  - Bureau of Labor Statistics Producer Price Index
data_license: Source-specific terms apply. The public package includes code, documentation, manifests, reports, and small official excerpts; large raw and analytical data are excluded from GitHub.
code_license: No repository license declared; copyright remains with the repository owner.
reproduction_command: make reproduce-sample
expected_runtime: The complete official-data pipeline requires Python 3.12, a Census API key, and approximately 16 GB of memory; synthetic estimator validation runs without credentials.
outputs:
  - src/
  - reports/
  - tests/
  - dashboard/
  - data/manifests/
  - docs/
github_url: https://github.com/YangXiaoShawn/open-economic-quant-tariff-incidence
site_url: https://yangxiaoshawn.github.io/projects/tariff-incidence/
dataset_url: https://huggingface.co/datasets/ShawnChamberlain/open-economic-quant-research-data/tree/main/TariffIncidence
space_url: https://huggingface.co/spaces/ShawnChamberlain/open-economic-quant-research-observatory
last_updated: 2026-08-17
limitations: Quantity estimates fail the date placebo and require a qualified reading; product exclusions are intention-to-treat because exclusion grants are finer than published import statistics; the structural model covers foreign sourcing only and produces no welfare estimate.
catalog:
  field: trade
  accent: green
  tags:
    - International Trade
    - Tariff Incidence
    - Supply Chains
  metric: Official-data design